Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -333 ARK +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -10.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.3 (+12.7) | 162.0 (-4.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -8.6 (+13.4) | 161.8 (-3.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.9 (+13.1) | 163.2 (-5.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.6 (+12.4) | 164.6 (-6.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | FLA 111 – 77 ARK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FLA 71 – 63 ARK |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARK 84 – 65 FLA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | ARK 82 – 74 FLA |
| Feb 17, 2021 | ARK 75 – 64 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#47) | 4.4 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#72) | 1.13 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#64) | 1.33 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.547 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 45.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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