Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -450 FLA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.9 (+13.1) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.9 (+12.1) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.3 (+12.7) | 141.5 (+7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.3 (+12.7) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | FLA 111 – 77 ARK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FLA 71 – 63 ARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FLA 90 – 68 ARK |
| Feb 23, 2022 | ARK 82 – 74 FLA |
| Feb 17, 2021 | ARK 75 – 64 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#20) | 10.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#42) | 1.37 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#39) | 1.80 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#19) | 0.554 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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