Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -0.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -0.6 (-8.6) | 138.9 (+17.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -0.6 (-8.6) | 138.0 (+18.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -0.5 (-8.5) | 136.9 (+19.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -1.0 (-9.0) | 137.8 (+18.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | FLA 111 – 77 ARK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FLA 71 – 63 ARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FLA 90 – 68 ARK |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARK 84 – 65 FLA |
| Feb 17, 2021 | ARK 75 – 64 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#44) | 13.8 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#56) | 2.38 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#62) | 2.98 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#79) | 0.598 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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