Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -163 FLA +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.3 (+5.7) | 152.5 (-13.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.0 (+7.0) | 149.0 (-10.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.0 (+5.0) | 152.3 (-13.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.7 (+5.3) | 151.5 (-12.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | FLA 111 – 77 ARK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FLA 71 – 63 ARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FLA 90 – 68 ARK |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARK 84 – 65 FLA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | ARK 82 – 74 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#17) | 13.2 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#26) | 2.02 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#32) | 2.64 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#33) | 0.583 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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