Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -325 CP +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -9.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -9.0 (+7.0) | 153.5 (-9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.2 (+4.8) | 157.1 (-13.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -8.5 (+7.5) | 152.7 (-8.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -8.2 (+7.8) | 154.8 (-10.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 69 CP |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CP 67 – 65 UCSD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSD 81 – 67 CP |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSD 95 – 68 CP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 87 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 85.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | -3.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#110) | -0.43 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#113) | -0.53 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#110) | 0.482 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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