Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Under |
| Money | CP +320 UCSD -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -9.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.7 (-38.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -9.8 (+11.8) | 156.5 (-24.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -8.0 (+10.0) | 157.9 (-25.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -9.0 (+11.0) | 158.2 (-26.2) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -7.6 (+9.6) | 157.9 (-25.9) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 69 CP |
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 64 CP |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSD 81 – 67 CP |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSD 95 – 68 CP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 87 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#231) | 9.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#248) | 1.89 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#246) | 2.69 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#261) | 0.603 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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