Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -1800 CP +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +27 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -17.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -17.4 (+9.6) | 157.6 (+5.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -16.5 (+10.5) | 160.4 (+2.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -16.7 (+10.3) | 156.0 (+7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -18.1 (+8.9) | 155.4 (+7.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 69 CP |
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 64 CP |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CP 67 – 65 UCSD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSD 81 – 67 CP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 87 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#49) | -2.3 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#32) | -0.49 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#59) | -0.68 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#56) | 0.465 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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