Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -355 VILL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +32 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -6.6 (+25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.4 (+25.6) | 145.2 (+0.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.8 (+25.2) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -6.7 (+25.3) | 145.3 (+0.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.3 (+25.7) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SJU 81 – 71 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#21) | 14.4 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#20) | 2.90 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#21) | 3.66 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#21) | 0.608 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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