Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VILL +125 SJU -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -3.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -2.1 (+4.1) | 137.8 (+6.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -0.3 (+2.3) | 136.8 (+7.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -3.1 (+5.1) | 137.1 (+6.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.1 (+4.1) | 136.1 (+7.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SJU 81 – 71 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 19-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#53) | 17.6 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#98) | 3.10 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#78) | 4.56 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#132) | 0.635 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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