Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | VILL -170 SJU +143 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -5.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.7 (-14.7) | 138.5 (+13.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.7 (-13.7) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.0 (-15.0) | 138.1 (+13.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -4.5 (-14.5) | 140.6 (+11.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#30) | 11.9 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#48) | 1.60 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#41) | 2.04 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#29) | 0.591 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 16.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 42.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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