Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -290 VILL +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.4 (+4.6) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.8 (+5.2) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.0 (+5.0) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.7 (+5.3) | 148.1 (-0.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SJU 81 – 71 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 19-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#27) | 11.6 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#39) | 0.99 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#25) | 1.26 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#34) | 0.534 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.