Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | VILL +120 SJU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -0.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.1 (-10.1) | 144.6 (+20.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.5 (-10.5) | 144.6 (+20.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.3 (-9.3) | 145.3 (+19.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.9 (-8.9) | 147.1 (+17.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SJU 81 – 71 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#34) | 18.3 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#20) | 2.05 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#18) | 2.96 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#22) | 0.594 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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