Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -167 VILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +20 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -3.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -3.4 (+16.6) | 143.7 (-23.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -4.3 (+15.7) | 141.6 (-21.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -3.5 (+16.5) | 143.3 (-23.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -3.5 (+16.5) | 143.1 (-23.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SJU 81 – 71 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#37) | 12.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#59) | 1.56 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#51) | 2.10 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#47) | 0.591 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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