Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | INST +154 UIC -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -4.3 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -4.2 (+20.2) | 144.5 (-2.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -4.1 (+20.1) | 141.9 (+0.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -4.5 (+20.5) | 143.5 (-1.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -5.1 (+21.1) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 16, 2023 | INST 79 – 60 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#211) | 4.5 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#270) | 0.20 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#274) | 0.42 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#302) | 0.520 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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