Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UIC -360 INST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | UIC -11.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -10.8 (-15.8) | 161.3 (+9.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -8.1 (-13.1) | 159.0 (+12.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -10.5 (-15.5) | 162.4 (+8.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -10.5 (-15.5) | 162.1 (+8.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 16, 2023 | INST 79 – 60 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#111) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#92) | -0.60 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#98) | -0.78 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#73) | 0.471 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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