Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UIC -258 INST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -8.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -7.1 (-5.1) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -7.3 (-5.3) | 143.0 (+7.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -8.3 (-6.3) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -8.0 (-6.0) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 16, 2023 | INST 79 – 60 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#133) | -2.7 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | -0.81 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#162) | -1.25 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#185) | 0.464 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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