Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UIC +550 INST -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -9.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.2 (-10.8) | 149.2 (-10.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.9 (-10.1) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -10.0 (-9.0) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -10.1 (-8.9) | 148.7 (-9.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#292) | 5.8 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#287) | 0.43 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#281) | 0.47 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#306) | 0.521 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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