Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UIC +500 INST -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +6 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -10.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.8 (+5.8) | 148.1 (+23.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.2 (+4.2) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.0 (+5.0) | 147.5 (+24.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -10.5 (+4.5) | 146.5 (+25.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Feb 16, 2023 | INST 79 – 60 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 17-3 |
| Home | 6-9 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | 13.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#256) | 2.35 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#210) | 2.73 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.605 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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