Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | INST -1600 UIC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | INST -16.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -15.8 (-0.8) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -15.2 (-0.2) | 150.1 (+10.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -14.0 (+1.0) | 148.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -14.5 (+0.5) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 16, 2023 | INST 79 – 60 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-9 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#39) | -1.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#26) | -0.54 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#39) | -0.29 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#40) | 0.469 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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