Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +170 MEM -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -7.6 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.0 (+22.0) | 146.0 (+6.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.7 (+20.7) | 143.6 (+8.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.7 (+20.7) | 146.1 (+5.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.4 (+21.4) | 146.1 (+5.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | MEM 74 – 70 ECU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MEM 82 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MEM 69 – 59 ECU |
| Jan 28, 2022 | MEM 71 – 54 ECU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | ECU 72 – 71 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#271) | 4.0 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#265) | 0.18 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#284) | 0.43 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#253) | 0.498 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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