Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +17 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -12.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.6 (+6.4) | 151.4 (-26.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -12.4 (+4.6) | 150.2 (-25.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -10.3 (+6.7) | 151.0 (-26.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -10.5 (+6.5) | 150.8 (-25.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ECU 84 – 68 MEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MEM 74 – 70 ECU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | MEM 82 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MEM 69 – 59 ECU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | ECU 72 – 71 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#55) | -0.4 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#105) | 0.59 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#76) | 0.43 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#91) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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