Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +163 MEM -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +24 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -4.4 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.3 (-19.7) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.5 (-19.5) | 143.2 (-3.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.7 (-20.3) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.0 (-20.0) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ECU 84 – 68 MEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MEM 74 – 70 ECU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | MEM 69 – 59 ECU |
| Jan 28, 2022 | MEM 71 – 54 ECU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | ECU 72 – 71 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#171) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#194) | 1.62 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#175) | 2.01 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#209) | 0.579 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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