Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | USF -1450 TULN +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | USF -16.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -13.7 (+14.3) | 151.5 (+0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -13.5 (+14.5) | 155.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -14.5 (+13.5) | 153.5 (-1.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -14.1 (+13.9) | 151.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USF 97 – 83 TULN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TULN 73 – 70 USF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TULN 84 – 66 USF |
| Feb 16, 2022 | TULN 76 – 57 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#52) | -2.3 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#65) | 0.34 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#57) | -0.02 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#42) | 0.521 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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