Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | USF +145 TULN -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +18 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -1.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -1.7 (-16.3) | 162.0 (-12.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -0.8 (-17.2) | 158.1 (-8.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.1 (-16.9) | 162.5 (-12.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -1.6 (-16.4) | 162.3 (-12.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USF 90 – 62 TULN |
| Jan 29, 2026 | USF 97 – 83 TULN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TULN 73 – 70 USF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 16, 2022 | TULN 76 – 57 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#139) | 6.2 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#221) | 1.15 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#178) | 1.36 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#239) | 0.546 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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