Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -170 USF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -4.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -2.5 (+0.5) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -2.4 (+0.6) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -3.1 (-0.1) | 149.7 (-6.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -2.9 (+0.1) | 148.0 (-5.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USF 90 – 62 TULN |
| Jan 29, 2026 | USF 97 – 83 TULN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TULN 84 – 66 USF |
| Feb 16, 2022 | TULN 76 – 57 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#157) | -0.8 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#283) | 0.25 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#258) | 0.19 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#307) | 0.502 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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