Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +19 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -5.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -3.7 (-15.3) | 132.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -3.4 (-15.6) | 133.8 (-0.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -4.5 (-14.5) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -4.4 (-14.6) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USF 90 – 62 TULN |
| Jan 29, 2026 | USF 97 – 83 TULN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TULN 73 – 70 USF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TULN 84 – 66 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#228) | 4.9 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#229) | 0.47 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#215) | 0.40 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#247) | 0.526 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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