Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TULN +320 USF -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +14 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -9.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.3 (-6.7) | 152.3 (+27.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -7.6 (-6.4) | 158.5 (+21.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -8.8 (-5.2) | 156.2 (+23.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -7.5 (-6.5) | 154.9 (+25.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | USF 90 – 62 TULN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TULN 73 – 70 USF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | USF 85 – 72 TULN |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TULN 84 – 66 USF |
| Feb 16, 2022 | TULN 76 – 57 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#210) | 10.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#165) | 1.15 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#199) | 1.86 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.571 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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