Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -218 SPU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +7 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -7.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.9 (-10.9) | 133.6 (-14.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.3 (-10.3) | 133.8 (-14.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.2 (-11.2) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.2 (-11.2) | 132.7 (-13.7) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MRST 63 – 52 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#178) | -4.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#188) | -0.35 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#191) | -0.64 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#162) | 0.505 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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