Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SPU +114 MRST -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -5.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.6 (+13.6) | 132.2 (-4.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.1 (+13.1) | 130.6 (-2.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.4 (+14.4) | 131.2 (-3.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.2 (+14.2) | 129.7 (-1.7) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MRST 63 – 52 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#279) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#247) | -0.16 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#281) | -0.31 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#263) | 0.496 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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