Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -115 MRST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +5 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -2.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.4 (-4.6) | 126.0 (-19.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.0 (-6.0) | 123.5 (-16.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.4 (-4.6) | 122.2 (-15.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -0.4 (-5.4) | 124.8 (-17.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MRST 63 – 52 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#237) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#253) | 0.84 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#261) | 0.37 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#277) | 0.534 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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