Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · McCann Arena · March 2, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MRST -3.5 Away covered
O/U 123.5 Under
Money MRST -170 / SPU +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total MRST win
Actual SPU +5 109 Lost
Massey MRST -5.8 (-10.8)
Massey Totals 119.2 (-10.2)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 88%
Efficiency Plus ML MRST -3.4 (-8.4) 127.2 (-18.2) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML MRST -4.7 (-9.7) 125.6 (-16.6) 66%
Baseline ML MRST -4.8 (-9.8) 126.8 (-17.8) 65%
Baseline Plus ML MRST -5.3 (-10.3) 127.7 (-18.7) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2026 SPU 6356 MRST
Jan 3, 2026 SPU 6959 MRST
Jan 17, 2025 MRST 5651 SPU
Feb 25, 2024 SPU 6960 MRST
Feb 4, 2024 MRST 6352 SPU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MRST SPU
Overall 20-10 12-16
Conference 13-7 7-13
Home 11-4 6-6
Away 9-5 6-10
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L5 W1
Avg Pts For 66.0 64.1
Avg Pts Against 64.5 66.3
Massey -4.4 (#237) -6.9 (#279)
Bradley-Terry 0.22 (#156) -1.23 (#283)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.26 (#190) -1.64 (#287)
RPI 0.522 (#136) 0.440 (#296)
Shooting & Four Factors MRST SPU
FG% 45.5% 38.9%
3PT% 33.3% 32.8%
REB / G 35.7 36.8
OREB / G 9.8 13.5
AST / TO 1.20 0.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 45.3%
TOV% 18.4% 21.3%
ORB% 29.6% 38.0%
FT Rate 16.4% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.6% 47.8%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 17.8%
DRB% 74.8% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.9% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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