Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -170 SPU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +5 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -5.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -5.3 (-10.3) | 127.7 (-18.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.4 (-8.4) | 127.2 (-18.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -4.7 (-9.7) | 125.6 (-16.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -4.8 (-9.8) | 126.8 (-17.8) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MRST 63 – 52 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#237) | -6.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | -1.23 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#190) | -1.64 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#136) | 0.440 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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