Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -150 MRST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.4 (+7.6) | 127.2 (+1.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.6 (+7.4) | 123.3 (+5.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.5 (+7.5) | 121.7 (+7.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -2.0 (+7.0) | 125.0 (+4.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | MRST 63 – 52 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#197) | -1.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#211) | -0.49 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#215) | -0.75 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#178) | 0.481 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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