Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -167 SPU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +11 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -1.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.8 (+11.8) | 121.3 (-6.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.3 (+10.7) | 121.9 (-6.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -0.1 (+10.9) | 124.1 (-9.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -0.2 (+11.2) | 125.7 (-10.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 63.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#249) | -2.0 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#276) | -0.42 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#287) | -0.53 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#295) | 0.480 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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