Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -218 DEP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.2 (-13.2) | 144.2 (-31.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.4 (-15.4) | 144.5 (-31.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -2.7 (-13.7) | 140.5 (-27.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.6 (-13.6) | 142.6 (-29.6) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DEP 80 – 75 MARQ |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MARQ 68 – 58 DEP |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MARQ 85 – 83 DEP |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MARQ 105 – 71 DEP |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 73 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#97) | 5.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#127) | 0.99 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#111) | 1.25 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#228) | 0.497 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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