Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +750 MARQ -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -11.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -10.9 (+8.9) | 148.2 (+19.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.9 (+9.9) | 146.4 (+21.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -10.4 (+8.4) | 147.2 (+20.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -10.5 (+8.5) | 149.6 (+18.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | DEP 62 – 51 MARQ |
| Jan 17, 2026 | DEP 80 – 75 MARQ |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MARQ 68 – 58 DEP |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MARQ 105 – 71 DEP |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MARQ 86 – 73 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#108) | 18.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#189) | 3.88 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#164) | 5.11 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#215) | 0.675 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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