Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +1200 MARQ -5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -19.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -15.3 (+2.3) | 145.6 (+13.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -14.7 (+1.7) | 143.9 (+15.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -16.6 (+3.6) | 143.8 (+15.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -17.5 (+4.5) | 144.3 (+14.7) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | DEP 62 – 51 MARQ |
| Jan 17, 2026 | DEP 80 – 75 MARQ |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MARQ 68 – 58 DEP |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MARQ 85 – 83 DEP |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MARQ 105 – 71 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 14-6 |
| Home | 3-15 | 14-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L20 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#298) | 15.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#316) | 2.47 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#305) | 3.07 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#273) | 0.622 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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