Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–46 on winners spread MAE 10.3 137 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Dayton @ George Washington +4.4 153.3 67% 68–66 ✗
Rider @ Iona +10.9 141.1 88% 58–80 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +8.7 139.3 75% 62–80 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +0.2 139.6 52% 58–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart +2.8 140.5 64% 69–77 ✓
Merrimack @ Canisius -8.6 128.4 16% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +8.3 145.2 82% 65–75 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton -2.5 132.2 39% 58–56 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +6.1 148.3 77% 71–80 ✓
UL Monroe @ Troy +16.1 155.8 90% 65–80 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State -0.3 146.6 51% 81–73 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +0.9 158.9 48% 84–70 ✗
Akron @ Kent State -4.4 162.9 36% 92–70 ✓
App State @ Texas State +0.4 137.2 52% 57–60 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +4.2 141.0 68% 69–68 ✗
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +6.4 145.5 74% 68–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +10.8 161.4 84% 99–82 ✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +12.9 140.9 87% 58–81 ✓
Colorado @ Houston +13.9 138.9 87% 62–102 ✓
Virginia @ Duke +14.5 142.9 87% 51–77 ✓
Seton Hall @ UConn +12.7 133.1 86% 67–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island +3.5 135.2 63% 61–55 ✗
Iowa @ Penn State -10.0 137.0 18% 69–71 ✗
NC State @ Notre Dame -6.4 153.1 30% 90–96 ✗
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -4.6 155.6 30% 80–71 ✓
Boston University @ American University +3.2 144.5 63% 68–65 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +2.3 146.9 64% 76–62 ✗
Fordham @ VCU +12.2 140.2 87% 63–82 ✓
Army @ Lafayette +4.0 144.7 69% 77–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +14.1 154.6 89% 64–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Wagner +4.1 138.1 66% 61–80 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +10.8 147.7 85% 64–69 ✓
Le Moyne @ New Haven -0.8 131.9 50% 59–66 ✗
Missouri @ Mississippi State +0.1 154.5 53% 88–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +4.0 147.1 72% 85–86 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell -1.5 142.8 40% 84–60 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +10.5 135.1 86% 60–74 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +3.1 153.1 65% 84–91 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson -1.4 144.1 47% 75–80 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis -0.5 158.7 49% 87–81 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +5.7 143.0 75% 79–89 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +6.0 141.8 70% 58–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati +7.4 154.2 75% 68–91 ✓
Oregon @ Northwestern +5.0 143.2 71% 62–63 ✓
UCLA @ Minnesota -1.0 134.0 47% 73–78 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate +13.0 148.1 87% 61–71 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +4.7 146.9 69% 92–75 ✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico +4.0 148.3 71% 76–81 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -2.3 152.3 43% 70–75 ✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay +2.4 141.8 62% 63–85 ✓
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green +5.0 153.3 74% 62–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo +6.7 149.2 78% 75–70 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill -2.3 136.3 37% 75–72 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +4.1 137.7 65% 61–84 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -0.3 131.2 39% 67–74 ✗
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T -4.7 158.1 34% 91–88 ✓
Campbell @ Towson +3.5 135.9 68% 67–71 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +12.9 146.1 86% 93–90 ✗
VMI @ Chattanooga +11.6 148.1 83% 79–86 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +4.6 160.4 69% 79–84 ✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia +4.8 146.4 70% 63–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson -2.8 150.7 42% 63–78 ✗
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -4.7 153.1 36% 97–111 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +3.8 139.0 66% 67–42 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +1.0 152.0 54% 77–91 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +15.1 145.4 88% 54–76 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +0.1 156.7 50% 74–90 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +7.6 159.0 75% 95–89 ✗
Elon @ Monmouth +3.5 151.3 71% 57–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +11.7 153.9 85% 61–82 ✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +0.9 142.7 59% 84–76 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +10.3 143.8 83% 65–97 ✓
Utah @ Arizona State +6.2 148.9 75% 60–73 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +0.1 153.7 48% 82–79 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +13.6 162.4 87% 68–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +6.7 143.8 74% 82–73 ✗
Nebraska @ USC -6.2 145.2 25% 82–67 ✓
Wisconsin @ Washington +0.5 150.1 57% 90–73 ✗
Air Force @ Wyoming +21.5 141.9 91% 62–66 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville -6.2 140.1 26% 79–80 ✗
San Diego @ Portland +2.5 147.3 64% 74–87 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -9.2 149.0 20% 84–59 ✓
Richmond @ Loyola Chicago -7.0 144.3 28% 66–69 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +10.9 143.0 85% 70–74 ✓
Pittsburgh @ California +8.5 141.7 80% 72–56 ✗
Colgate @ Navy +8.4 142.3 81% 69–85 ✓
Toledo @ Ohio +0.5 155.0 53% 79–67 ✗
NJIT @ Bryant -1.9 136.2 42% 52–69 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton +2.1 144.6 58% 65–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +0.1 143.5 49% 68–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho +3.0 152.9 66% 76–67 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.4 145.4 86% 57–88 ✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky -2.3 156.0 46% 80–77 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +4.7 139.2 67% 70–89 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +13.7 138.1 86% 67–74 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +12.6 149.4 84% 61–84 ✓
Texas @ Texas A&M +1.7 161.5 65% 76–70 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -0.3 132.6 41% 74–60 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +5.9 132.1 77% 57–69 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +0.7 149.3 50% 76–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian -10.6 133.9 18% 77–56 ✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois -7.6 137.8 20% 91–69 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +6.0 132.9 69% 50–77 ✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois +0.1 132.6 48% 79–43 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +5.0 139.4 68% 60–68 ✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -8.0 137.1 21% 75–69 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State +7.2 138.7 77% 73–89 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -6.0 142.0 31% 85–73 ✓
Lamar @ Incarnate Word +0.0 137.1 51% 60–72 ✓
Delaware @ Kennesaw State +9.3 148.0 84% 82–90 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +14.1 151.1 88% 63–96 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -3.7 138.8 35% 71–79 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +4.3 150.3 72% 51–72 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +1.8 164.7 67% 79–76 ✗
Furman @ Western Carolina +0.3 146.1 57% 67–86 ✓
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley +12.4 142.0 86% 55–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Sam Houston +11.7 150.5 85% 81–86 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +6.1 153.6 79% 57–82 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M +2.3 141.8 56% 89–88 ✗
Syracuse @ Wake Forest +4.6 150.7 73% 83–88 ✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling +4.0 138.1 70% 66–59 ✗
San Francisco @ Pacific +5.3 141.5 74% 72–61 ✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton +0.8 137.3 55% 61–82 ✓
SMU @ Stanford -0.7 153.3 49% 75–95 ✗
Brown @ Cornell +11.0 153.0 80% 80–86 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -5.6 147.0 33% 60–54 ✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +1.5 132.4 67% 61–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +9.2 155.7 81% 78–87 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -6.6 146.0 23% 66–63 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +0.0 152.6 48% 83–73 ✗
Oklahoma @ LSU +2.4 159.4 70% 83–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida -0.7 146.9 46% 85–61 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State -2.3 141.0 41% 81–78 ✓
Alabama @ Tennessee +2.9 162.6 64% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Kansas State -4.2 153.8 34% 77–68 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +13.1 145.9 88% 70–69 ✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.1 134.3 74% 59–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.