← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–18 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
45 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.3 | 149.1 | 57% | 92–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.0 | 138.7 | 86% | 58–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 154.0 | 44% | 87–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 148.9 | 38% | 69–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 145.2 | 76% | 57–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.1 | 157.4 | 89% | 76–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 149.9 | 40% | 79–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 151.7 | 89% | 72–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 161.1 | 72% | 87–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.1 | 153.8 | 35% | 84–95 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 145.3 | 33% | 94–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.0 | 156.3 | 88% | 53–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 165.0 | 73% | 77–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 148.6 | 81% | 82–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 153.1 | 86% | 85–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 151.2 | 36% | 67–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 139.3 | 50% | 71–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 137.2 | 79% | 67–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 151.2 | 32% | 88–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 150.3 | 44% | 83–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 149.3 | 84% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 153.5 | 82% | 64–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 143.1 | 46% | 59–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 143.7 | 71% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 133.1 | 84% | 64–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.5 | 153.5 | 88% | 62–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 138.3 | 70% | 62–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 141.1 | 67% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.1 | 144.1 | 27% | 63–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.6 | 132.9 | 22% | 67–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 149.2 | 36% | 74–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 160.5 | 68% | 78–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 143.5 | 79% | 80–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.4 | 146.1 | 37% | 68–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 146.4 | 80% | 76–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 133.3 | 88% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 137.6 | 74% | 69–47 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.3 | 128.8 | 21% | 73–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 133.6 | 65% | 63–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.3 | 151.7 | 40% | 69–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 136.2 | 35% | 75–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 144.6 | 41% | 77–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.5 | 140.3 | 17% | 81–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 144.2 | 63% | 62–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 148.8 | 53% | 74–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.