What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–50 on winners spread MAE 10.1 135 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rider @ Fairfield +13.4 144.7 89% 62–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +19.8 178.1 96% 74–97 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -6.0 149.4 29% 84–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +10.1 169.9 82% 59–75 ✓
Merrimack @ Siena +8.6 129.8 78% 63–59 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's -0.7 141.6 48% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Iona +17.2 146.6 94% 53–71 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart -8.2 138.0 23% 76–72 ✓
Canisius @ Manhattan +7.1 147.1 74% 70–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +2.4 156.3 59% 85–67 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green -0.5 169.9 48% 77–67 ✓
USC @ Minnesota +0.6 150.0 52% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +10.8 157.6 84% 62–70 ✓
Nebraska @ Indiana +4.2 147.5 65% 83–77 ✗
Boston College @ Louisville +25.0 147.6 99% 62–75 ✓
Tennessee @ Florida +3.0 148.3 61% 67–91 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia -4.6 136.5 34% 75–86 ✗
VCU @ George Mason -0.6 148.5 48% 80–86 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +9.0 138.1 79% 81–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Miami +17.5 154.2 94% 81–91 ✓
NC State @ Florida State -7.0 167.0 26% 113–69 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +20.3 134.1 97% 60–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan +26.3 165.3 99% 91–88 ✗
Houston @ Baylor -1.6 147.6 44% 77–55 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt +13.1 167.1 88% 73–84 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +8.7 145.0 78% 72–69 ✗
Army @ Boston University +8.5 152.5 78% 91–100 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.1 144.2 42% 62–79 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +3.5 138.6 62% 70–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +2.5 151.7 59% 69–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ New Haven +3.8 131.1 64% 55–65 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +8.5 139.3 78% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -7.1 152.8 26% 77–79 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana -9.7 139.8 19% 90–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +0.8 133.6 53% 62–67 ✓
Penn State @ Purdue +21.7 151.3 98% 85–93 ✓
SMU @ Duke +12.4 161.5 87% 75–82 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -5.7 168.7 30% 75–70 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +8.3 185.5 77% 102–91 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +12.5 148.4 87% 78–77 ✗
Rhode Island @ Davidson +5.1 134.4 68% 70–45 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -1.9 160.6 43% 71–50 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -7.9 167.6 24% 84–82 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton -0.4 150.6 49% 90–73 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +1.4 138.3 55% 83–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Navy +12.3 144.6 87% 50–76 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota -0.7 179.8 48% 72–82 ✗
North Dakota State @ Omaha -6.0 153.0 29% 78–76 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -10.5 147.3 17% 60–76 ✗
Buffalo @ Ohio +0.4 157.6 51% 80–91 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +10.0 143.4 82% 79–54 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +7.3 143.7 75% 73–81 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +4.0 138.9 64% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -6.6 155.2 27% 73–68 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +2.4 127.0 59% 74–70 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +3.4 138.1 62% 46–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel -6.6 149.2 27% 58–64 ✗
Towson @ Northeastern +2.2 139.3 58% 87–78 ✗
Monmouth @ Hofstra +11.8 143.4 86% 64–67 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer +10.3 156.3 83% 97–109 ✓
VMI @ Furman +17.3 148.5 94% 48–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +3.1 156.4 61% 71–87 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida -6.1 179.5 29% 89–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +7.9 151.7 76% 82–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson -11.4 144.2 15% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia +13.3 153.0 89% 55–70 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +3.3 153.0 62% 91–72 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -9.7 146.9 19% 76–73 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington +22.6 159.2 98% 66–101 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa +8.1 175.5 77% 93–78 ✗
Kansas State @ Arizona State +0.2 169.4 51% 84–87 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +3.1 138.9 61% 70–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -18.7 132.4 4% 91–49 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -9.2 163.4 20% 85–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +18.0 163.8 95% 60–70 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +15.5 156.7 92% 82–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Jacksonville -1.4 143.9 45% 43–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +7.6 127.4 76% 72–82 ✓
Delaware @ Louisiana Tech +3.7 119.1 63% 68–70 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +15.4 143.8 92% 71–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +5.6 170.6 69% 76–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -3.1 152.3 39% 69–71 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston +3.7 157.4 63% 82–74 ✗
Arizona @ TCU -8.1 153.4 23% 86–73 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +20.9 167.6 97% 71–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +13.3 154.9 89% 79–92 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -17.7 153.6 5% 84–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +13.8 157.9 90% 75–64 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +9.5 140.2 81% 84–73 ✗
Providence @ Xavier -1.2 176.7 45% 84–97 ✗
California @ Virginia Tech +4.8 152.6 67% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +21.4 154.5 97% 63–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +15.5 153.7 92% 60–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +4.8 151.9 67% 69–70 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -6.9 148.1 27% 73–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.2 165.2 54% 84–77 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky -0.9 155.3 47% 75–79 ✗
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +13.2 149.8 89% 76–92 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP -3.8 148.2 36% 68–56 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -6.2 126.4 29% 66–64 ✓
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -1.8 125.7 44% 57–69 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga -0.3 146.2 49% 79–88 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -6.0 138.7 29% 78–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Illinois -3.8 145.1 37% 59–54 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +12.1 148.3 86% 82–74 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -3.0 144.4 39% 70–74 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +3.1 153.1 61% 67–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +14.0 140.5 90% 63–59 ✗
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +16.8 144.4 94% 82–88 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -5.3 142.1 31% 85–52 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -6.1 145.8 29% 88–77 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +5.5 145.1 69% 67–70 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +9.1 142.1 80% 70–74 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -0.3 169.5 49% 78–84 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +19.1 140.6 96% 61–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +12.2 156.0 87% 69–96 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho +0.4 142.8 52% 89–92 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington -0.0 167.3 50% 65–66 ✗
Florida International @ Missouri State +1.5 152.5 55% 71–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +6.6 150.3 72% 82–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +11.5 148.3 85% 64–62 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern -1.7 169.3 44% 74–66 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman -1.4 150.6 45% 65–74 ✗
Arkansas @ Auburn +0.0 176.6 50% 73–95 ✓
Wake Forest @ North Carolina +9.9 149.3 82% 84–87 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +0.1 129.2 50% 69–75 ✓
Belmont @ Drake -6.5 155.2 28% 78–76 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +22.7 160.1 98% 69–70 ✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame -1.0 135.9 46% 76–61 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -6.5 131.5 28% 75–71 ✓
Houston Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +16.8 137.5 94% 67–85 ✓
Nicholls @ New Orleans +2.5 158.0 59% 90–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M -5.1 145.3 32% 69–77 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss +1.9 145.8 57% 69–76 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -5.8 138.0 30% 76–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.