Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ETAM +154 RGV -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -5.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -4.7 (+12.7) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -5.5 (+13.5) | 140.2 (+5.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -5.0 (+13.0) | 142.6 (+3.4) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -4.9 (+12.9) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | RGV 63 – 55 ETAM |
| Jan 14, 2025 | RGV 57 – 55 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-16 | 14-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#306) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#264) | -0.96 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#281) | -0.94 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#234) | 0.447 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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