Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -1000 ETAM +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +2 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -15.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-38.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -10.8 (-8.8) | 143.7 (-31.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -10.8 (-8.8) | 145.5 (-33.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -11.2 (-9.2) | 144.9 (-32.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -11.7 (-9.7) | 145.3 (-33.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | RGV 63 – 55 ETAM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETAM 77 – 69 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | -11.5 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#203) | -1.99 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#219) | -2.89 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.408 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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