Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -218 TENN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +24 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -3.6 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -4.2 (+19.8) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -3.4 (+20.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -3.5 (+20.5) | 144.4 (+13.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -4.5 (+19.5) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 16, 2025 | FLA 86 – 77 TENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TENN 64 – 44 FLA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | FLA 73 – 43 TENN |
| Jan 16, 2024 | TENN 85 – 66 FLA |
| Feb 2, 2023 | FLA 67 – 54 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#16) | 18.3 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#34) | 2.36 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#25) | 3.59 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#28) | 0.581 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 47.3 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 17.3 | 15.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 44.2% | 45.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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