Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -185 TENN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +30 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -0.2 (+29.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.4 (+27.6) | 140.8 (-24.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -2.5 (+27.5) | 138.7 (-22.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.8 (+27.2) | 136.1 (-20.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.1 (+27.9) | 138.4 (-22.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FLA 91 – 67 TENN |
| Mar 16, 2025 | FLA 86 – 77 TENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TENN 64 – 44 FLA |
| Jan 16, 2024 | TENN 85 – 66 FLA |
| Feb 2, 2023 | FLA 67 – 54 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#9) | 23.5 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#5) | 5.29 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.89 (#9) | 7.29 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#23) | 0.658 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 45.1 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 41.4% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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