Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -210 TENN +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -2.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.4 (+6.6) | 139.9 (+23.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.8 (+7.2) | 143.2 (+19.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.5 (+6.5) | 142.0 (+21.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.1 (+6.9) | 139.4 (+23.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FLA 91 – 67 TENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TENN 64 – 44 FLA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | FLA 73 – 43 TENN |
| Jan 16, 2024 | TENN 85 – 66 FLA |
| Feb 2, 2023 | FLA 67 – 54 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#4) | 21.9 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#2) | 4.33 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.03 (#1) | 5.53 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#4) | 0.646 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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