Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -4000 BC +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -25.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -19.1 (-6.1) | 142.6 (-5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -21.0 (-8.0) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -19.6 (-6.6) | 145.5 (-8.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -19.7 (-6.7) | 142.9 (-5.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | BC 75 – 65 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#11) | -1.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#31) | -0.77 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#30) | -0.72 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#30) | 0.456 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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