Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BC -500 LOU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BC -11.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -8.5 (+1.5) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -9.0 (+1.0) | 139.7 (+0.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -9.2 (+0.8) | 140.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -9.8 (+0.2) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-7 | 4-13 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#206) | -9.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#174) | -2.39 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#158) | -2.12 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#191) | 0.427 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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