Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BC -500 LOU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | BC -10.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -9.6 (+2.4) | 148.7 (+17.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -9.7 (+2.3) | 149.0 (+17.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -9.7 (+2.3) | 149.7 (+16.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -10.0 (+2.0) | 150.9 (+15.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | BC 75 – 65 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-11 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#90) | -0.5 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#98) | -0.39 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#91) | -0.29 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#97) | 0.460 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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