Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +155 BC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +6 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -4.9 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -4.4 (-1.6) | 148.1 (-20.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -6.0 (+0.0) | 146.4 (-18.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -5.2 (-0.8) | 149.7 (-21.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -5.5 (-0.5) | 148.3 (-20.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | BC 75 – 65 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-11 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#196) | 6.2 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#237) | 1.07 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#220) | 1.41 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#300) | 0.537 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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