Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BC +800 LOU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +26 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -15.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -14.2 (-11.8) | 148.2 (-6.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -11.0 (-15.0) | 148.5 (-6.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -13.5 (-12.5) | 148.7 (-6.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -14.3 (-11.7) | 148.8 (-6.8) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | BC 75 – 65 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 18-2 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#212) | 15.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#184) | 2.75 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#201) | 3.46 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#218) | 0.628 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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