Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | BC -275 LOU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BC -6.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -6.0 (+12.0) | 135.2 (+6.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -5.1 (+12.9) | 133.6 (+8.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -6.5 (+11.5) | 135.6 (+6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -6.2 (+11.8) | 136.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Jan 26, 2023 | BC 75 – 65 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 9-7 | 4-13 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#185) | -7.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#124) | -1.62 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#123) | -1.23 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.425 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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